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  • 2019.11.11 Monday
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Aid to North Korea

 On February 22nd, the United Nation’s Secretary-General spokesman Stephane Dujarric announced that North Korea requested food assistance. I sincerely hope that North Korea will collapse and abducted foreign nationals will be released as soon as possible.                                                                                 Previous to this announcement, NBC news reported that North Korea sent a formal letter through its ambassador Kim Song, stating that the main cause of the poor harvest was a nationwide, record-setting heat and resultant drought through July and August, and flooding as well. In addition, due to the economic sanctions, North Korea had difficulties in importing farming machines such as tractors, fertilizer, pesticide, and petrochemicals. According to the “statistics” which North Korea submitted to the U.N., food shortage is prospected to equal the caloric intake of 1.4 million people.                                                                                South Korean president Moon Jae-in is so pro-North-Korean that South Korea smuggled petroleum products to North Korea. However, I don’t believe that he can continue to support North Korea because South Korea is itself economically cornered. As the government raised its minimum wage by 29% in 2 years, part-time job slots for which lower income people work have decreased by 195,000. Also, more than 1 million small businesses have gone out of business last year. Over 22 million out of 52 million citizens are borrowing money from predatory loan institutions whose rates are higher than 20%.                                                                                 It is reported that, in North Korea, many people have been dying from starvation, and, in the winter, some are frozen to death. We should somehow find a way to offer aid to such abused people, never the ruling class or the Army.                                                                                 In believe that the world community should offer millet to North Korea. The ruling class won’t eat such a humble food. If the millet were served to the Army, the soldiers’ morale would decrease.                                                                                 If the world supports the abused in North Korea, I hope, they could get enough energy to riot against the atrocious regime. I earnestly hope that North Korea will collapse as soon as possible.        

The Okinawan Prefectural Referendum

 On February 14th, Okinawan Governor Denny Tamaki announce that Okinawa would hold a prefectural referendum on the 24th concerning the relocation of the U.S. air base to the Henoko area of Nago City. The result of the referendum is not legally binding. However, I believe that the Abe Cabinet should pay much attention to the citizens’ voices.                                                                                    In Japan, a national referendum has never been held, but local referendums are conducted on rare occasions. In 1996, Okinawa held a prefectural referendum demanding to shrink the U.S. military presence in Okinawa, and in the following year, Nago City carried out a municipal referendum opposing moving in the U.S. air base there. Despite the results, the Japanese national government decided in 1999 that the U.S. air base would relocate within Okinawa, from the Futenma area to the Henoko area.                                                                                     Initially, Okinawa Pref. and Nago City accepted the decision on the condition that the air base would be constructed off the coast of Henoko and with its use limited to 15 years. Due to negotiations with the U.S., the Japanese government had to relocate the construction site to the coast.                                                                                    In 2014, Takeshi Onaga, who was opposed to the air-base relocation, was elected as Okinawan governor, and revoked the construction permit in the following year. The Japanese government sued the Okinawan prefectural government in court, and won in 2016. Onaga passed away in 2018, and Denny Tamaki, diehard opponent of the base relocation, was elected with a historically high number of votes at over 390,000.                                                                                      Okinawan citizens of 18 years old or older can vote in the prefectural referendum. The number of potential voting is 1,156,295. They must choose from 3 options on the air-base relocation: approve, disapprove, and no opinion. According to the Prefectural Voting Regulation, when one choice amounts to a quarter of all the electorate, the governor will report the result to both the Japanese and U.S. governments. Opponents of base relocation are aiming at this target, which equals some 289,000 votes. In my opinion, the voting rate must surpass 50%. If not, it means that the majority are not interested in the issue.                                                                                    The result will be known on the 24th of February or the following day. I hope that the Abe Cabinet won’t blatantly ignore the Okinawans’ voice. Also, if the voting rate doesn't surpass 50% or the votes opposing reach the 25% mark, the activist should accept the reality of air-base relocation.

Japanese Citizens’ Voice

 The Nikkei Shimbun conducted a survey by snail-mail for the first time. I believe that these results are more reliable than usual because, in the case of robo-calls, busy people would immediately hang up the phone while many seniors, housewives and the jobless would take time to answer the survey. 1,673 out of 3,000 questionnaires were returned by the end of November.                                                                                     First of all, politicians, journalists and bureaucrats should be aware of the fact that they are not trusted by citizens even though most of them are proud of their professional status. 56% of the respondents said that Diet members were untrustworthy, 42% said that the media was untrustworthy, and 32% said that national bureaucrats were untrustworthy. Notably, 60% of 28 to 29 years olds said that they don’t trust the mass media.                                                                                     The most reputable institutions are the Self-Defense Forces (60%), followed by the courts (47%), the police (43%), prosecutors (39%), and teachers (32%). No matter how the left-leaning media have dispraised the Self-Defense Forces, they have reliably contributed during disasters such as the Great Tohoku Earthquake in 2011.                                                                                     When asked about foreign countries, the most hated was North Korea (82%), followed by China (76%), South Korea (61%), and Russia (57%). The result is not surprising.                                                                                     On the other hand, I don't understand why the U.K. and Australia are most preferred by Japanese (72% each), followed by the U.S. (67%).                                                                                     Currently, a constitutional reform of any kind is difficult: 46% prefer to revise the constitution whereas 50% are opposed to it. However, opinions vary depending on age and income. The majority of those 60 years old and older are opposed to revising the constitution whereas the majority of those less than 60 years old support revision. And, the majority of households earning less than 5 million yen (about 50,000 US dollars) per year preferred not revising the constitution whereas the majority of households earning more than 8 million yen supported revision. Households between 5 million and 8 million yen were equally divided. The Abe Cabinet had better not rush a national referendum on constitutional reform.                                                                                      I hope that the Japanese government implement formal survey contingent with nationwide elections to record citizens’ opinions accurately.       

Doomed South Korea

 On February 1st,the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and the European Union came into effect. It comprises 635 million people and accounts for nearly one-third of global GDP. In South Korea, this EPA is concerning for South Korea because it might negatively affect the South Korean economy.                                                                                 South Korea has maintained its total trade surplus for 84 consecutive months. During January, however, its exports were 46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous month, whereas its imports were 45 billion USD, a decrease of 1.7%. The surplus is shrinking.                                                                                  Semiconductors account for about 20% of South Korea’s exports. Its semiconductor exports during January were 7.4 billion USD, a decrease of 23.3%, due to the drop in their prices. For instance, the price of DRAM (8Gb) was a decrease of 36.5%.                                                                                    26.8% of South Korea’s exports are accounted for by China. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is taking a heavy toll on the South Korean economy. During January, its exports to China decreased to 10.8 billion USD, a decrease of 19.1%.                                                                                   South Korea concluded an EPA with the EU in 2007. However, its advantages over Japan have now disappeared.                                                                                   When South Korea’s foreign currency decreased, investor capital fled concerned that South Korea might become unable to pay back dollar-based debts. Previously, South Korea could weather currency crises by borrowing dollars from the U.S. and Japan.                                                                                   In 1997, however, its relationship with the U.S. was so bad that it couldn’t borrow dollars from the U.S. In addition, the U.S. put pressure on Japan not to lend dollars to South Korea. As a result, South Korea fell under the control of the International Monetary Fund.                                                                                   South Korean President Moon Jae-in is so pro-North-Korean that South Korea has trafficked petroleum products to North Korea, breaching the UN resolution. The South Korean relationship with the U.S. is tremendously bad. And, its relationship with Japan is the worst it has ever been.                                                                                   I believe that, under incumbent President Moon, South Korea is doomed to default or fall under the control of the IMF again.       

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