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  • 2019.11.11 Monday
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  • by スポンサードリンク

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Doomed South Korea

 On February 1st,the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Japan and the European Union came into effect. It comprises 635 million people and accounts for nearly one-third of global GDP. In South Korea, this EPA is concerning for South Korea because it might negatively affect the South Korean economy.                                                                                 South Korea has maintained its total trade surplus for 84 consecutive months. During January, however, its exports were 46 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous month, whereas its imports were 45 billion USD, a decrease of 1.7%. The surplus is shrinking.                                                                                  Semiconductors account for about 20% of South Korea’s exports. Its semiconductor exports during January were 7.4 billion USD, a decrease of 23.3%, due to the drop in their prices. For instance, the price of DRAM (8Gb) was a decrease of 36.5%.                                                                                    26.8% of South Korea’s exports are accounted for by China. The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is taking a heavy toll on the South Korean economy. During January, its exports to China decreased to 10.8 billion USD, a decrease of 19.1%.                                                                                   South Korea concluded an EPA with the EU in 2007. However, its advantages over Japan have now disappeared.                                                                                   When South Korea’s foreign currency decreased, investor capital fled concerned that South Korea might become unable to pay back dollar-based debts. Previously, South Korea could weather currency crises by borrowing dollars from the U.S. and Japan.                                                                                   In 1997, however, its relationship with the U.S. was so bad that it couldn’t borrow dollars from the U.S. In addition, the U.S. put pressure on Japan not to lend dollars to South Korea. As a result, South Korea fell under the control of the International Monetary Fund.                                                                                   South Korean President Moon Jae-in is so pro-North-Korean that South Korea has trafficked petroleum products to North Korea, breaching the UN resolution. The South Korean relationship with the U.S. is tremendously bad. And, its relationship with Japan is the worst it has ever been.                                                                                   I believe that, under incumbent President Moon, South Korea is doomed to default or fall under the control of the IMF again.       

スポンサーサイト

  • 2019.11.11 Monday
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  • 23:57
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  • by スポンサードリンク

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